We introduce a new statistical framework to estimate the change in subsurface ocean temperature following the passage of a tropical cyclone (TC). Our approach combines tools handling seasonal variations and spatial dependence in the data, culminating in a three-dimensional characterization of the interaction between TCs and the ocean. Our work allows us to obtain new scientific insights, and we expect it to be generally applicable to studying the impact of TCs on other ocean phenomena.

A unique link is found between the Caribbean GDP growth rate and the tropical climate system. Although the Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation governs some aspects of this link, the Walker circulation and associated humidity over the equatorial Atlantic emerge as leading predictors of economic prosperity in the central Antilles islands.

The paper proposes a novel parametric model for statistical post-processing of visibility ensemble forecasts; investigates various approaches to parameter estimation; and, using two case studies, provides a detailed comparison with the existing state-of-the-art forecasts. The introduced approach consistently outperforms both the raw ensemble forecasts and the reference parametric post-processing method.

Future climate behavior is typically modeled using computer-based simulations, which are generated for both historical and future time periods. The trustworthiness of these models can be assessed by determining whether the simulated historical climate matches what was observed. We provide a tool that allows researchers to identify major differences between observed climate and climate model predictions, which will hopefully lead to further model refinements.

In this study, we investigated the performance of Gaussian process regression (GP) models in handling outlier-affected spatial datasets. Our findings emphasized that models with the proposed methods provided accurate predictions and reliable uncertainty quantification, showcasing resilience against outliers. Overall, our study contributes to advancing the understanding of GP regression in spatial contexts and offers practical solutions to enhance its applicability in outlier-rich environments.

To assess the role of climate change in individual weather events, different lines of evidence need to be combined in order to draw robust conclusions about whether observed changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Here we present a transparent method, developed over 8 years, to combine such lines of evidence in a single framework and draw conclusions about the overarching role of human-induced climate change in individual weather events.

Global warming is a big issue: it is necessary to know more details to make a forecast model and plan adaptation measures. Warming varies in space and time and models often average it over large areas. However, it shows great variations between months of the year. It also varies between regions of the world and between lowland and highland regions. This paper uses statistical and machine learning techniques to quantify such differences between Italy and the UK at different altitudes.

We present a novel stochastic weather generator conditioned on circulation patterns and regional temperature, accounting for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric changes. We extensively evaluate the model for the central European region.  It statistically downscales precipitation for future periods, generating long, spatially and temporally consistent series. Results suggest an increase in extreme precipitation over the region, offering key benefits for hydrological impact studies.