https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/ Recent articles of the journal Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography en https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-243-2026 Non-stationary time series attribution for heatwaves over Europe Pascal Meurer, Sebastian Buschow, Svenja Szemkus, and Petra Friederichs Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 243–274, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-243-2026, 2026 The attribution of extreme events typically focuses on individual events, such as heatwaves. In our study, we extend this approach to include complete time series during such events in order to capture their temporal dependence. Using today's knowledge, we find that the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on heatwaves could already have been proven in the 1960s. It is very likely that 21st-century heatwaves over Europe would be impossible without these emissions. Wed, 07 Oct 2026 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-221-2026 Comparative evaluation of statistical and deep learning methods for high-frequency radar surface current forecasting in a narrow tropical strait Dhava Gautama and Alifficionaldo Agpri Putra Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 221–242, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-221-2026, 2026 This study compares different methods to predict ocean surface currents in a fast-changing strait. Using over three years of radar observations, we tested both traditional and modern data-driven approaches. The results show that advanced learning models give the most accurate forecasts, especially for several hours ahead. We also find that including enough past information improves predictions. These findings can help improve maritime safety and support better decision-making in coastal areas. Tue, 15 Sep 2026 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-211-2026 On computing the maximum likelihood estimates for the q-Pareto distribution and application to earthquakes Fatah Benatia and Mohammed Ridha Kouider Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 211–219, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-211-2026, 2026 The aim of this study is to develop efficient estimation methods of the maximum likelihood estimation method for the q-Pareto distribution (q-PD) parameters that are based on numerical methods to maximize the log-likelihood of the q-PD. And the q-PD parameters is a q-exponential distribution, finding applications in many fields such as:  seismology (earthquake patterns). Tue, 25 Aug 2026 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-195-2026 Non-stationary GEV models for estimating design sea-states in a changing climate – applications to offshore wind farms along the French coasts Nicolas Raillard, Coline Poppeschi, Tessa Chevallier, Youen Kervella, and Laurent Dubus Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 195–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-195-2026, 2026 This study examines how ocean wave conditions around France may change as the climate warms. Using a new statistical approach and multiple climate projections, it shows that extreme waves are likely to become more intense in winter and less severe in summer, especially along the Atlantic coast and the English Channel. The work also proposes a new way to define extreme sea-state conditions over the structure's lifetime, leading to better design. Wed, 24 Jun 2026 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-173-2026 Intelligent daily rainfall prediction for early warning using deep learning and satellite data: application to Bouaflé and Zuénoula stations, Ivory coast Satti J. R. Kamenan, Ta M. Youan, Miessan G. Adja, Sandona I. Soro, and Amani M. Kouassi Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 173–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-173-2026, 2026 Recurrent flooding in the Marahoué region, especially at Bouaflé and Zuénoula, requires reliable rainfall forecasts. This study uses deep learning with satellite data to predict daily rainfall up to seven days ahead. The results show high accuracy for short- and medium-term forecasts, supporting early warning systems and helping local communities prepare for flood risks. Fri, 08 May 2026 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-149-2026 Improving multisite precipitation generators based on generalised linear models Jakob Benjamin Wessel and Richard E. Chandler Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 149–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-149-2026, 2026 Precipitation generators are statistical models for generating long synthetic sequences of (multisite) precipitation for hydrological analyses. One widely-used class of precipitation generators is based on so-called 'generalised linear models'.  In this work, we extend this class to better capture key features of daily precipitation and introduce a new method to ensure realistic inter-site dependence, so neighbouring locations tend to be dry or wet at the same time. Tue, 05 May 2026 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-123-2026 Simulation of extreme functionals in meteoceanic data: application to surge evolution over tidal cycles Nathan Gorse, Olivier Roustant, Jérémy Rohmer, and Déborah Idier Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 123–148, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-123-2026, 2026 The analysis of the effect of extreme meteoceanic conditions is usually based on physical simulators, which rely on simulated extreme inputs consistent with the observations. However, surge measurements often fail to meet the theoretical assumptions. To address this, we propose a new simulation method which makes it possible to adjust the desired level of extremes after retrieving standard hypotheses. The consistency of simulations with the observations is then validated by using several tools. Tue, 28 Apr 2026 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-111-2026 Robust doubly censored Weibull modelling of NDVI-based burn-scar persistence in satellite time series Nora Khalil Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 111–121, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-111-2026, 2026 Wildfires leave scars on the land that slowly fade as vegetation grows back. Using long records of satellite images from Alaska, we measured how long burned areas remain visibly damaged and built a statistical model to describe their recovery. We find that most areas recover in about three years, while some remain scarred for five to six years. Our approach can be reused to track recovery after other environmental disturbances. Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-87-2026 Selecting the best distribution for modeling trends in low, medium, and extreme daily precipitation under climate change Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, Guillaume Evin, and Emmanuel Paquet Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 87–109, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-87-2026, 2026 This study advances nonstationary precipitation modeling by using single, flexible distributions to analyze trends across the full daily spectrum. We demonstrate that evolving shape parameters are critical for accurately capturing observed differential changes in low, medium, and extreme quantiles. This method ensures statistical consistency, providing reliable trend assessments over the two-component framework common in climate impact analysis.  Tue, 24 Mar 2026 21:59:39 +0100 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-73-2026 Comparing climate time series – Part 6: Testing equality of autoregressive parameters without assuming equality of noise variances Timothy DelSole and Michael K. Tippett Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 73–86, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-73-2026, 2026 We derived a new statistical test that can compare climate models and observations more broadly than before, while allowing for both natural fluctuations and human influences. Tests on global temperature data show that most climate models differ from observations in important ways. Mon, 23 Mar 2026 21:59:39 +0100 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-59-2026 Asymptotically-unbiased nonparametric estimation of the power spectral density from uniformly-spaced data with missing samples Cédric Chavanne Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 59–72, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-59-2026, 2026 Standard algorithms for estimating the power spectral density of finite discrete data require interpolating missing samples, which usually produces biased estimates. An unbiased estimate can be obtained by taking the Fourier transform of the unbiased estimator of the circular autocorrelation, using only the available data. With missing samples, this estimator can produce negative power spectral densities, but converges to positive values when averaged over a sufficient number of realizations. Fri, 20 Feb 2026 21:59:39 +0100 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-43-2026 Joint probabilistic estimates of temperature and precipitation from tree ring-based reconstructions of the last millennium Kate Marvel, Benjamin Cook, Ensheng Weng, Ram Singh, and Edward Cook Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 43–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-43-2026, 2026 Using information derived from tree-rings, we reconstruct possible combinations of past temperatures and precipitation amounts.  This lets us put current changes in context and shows, for example, that the 1930s were likely the driest decade on record in central Kansas, while the late 20th century was likely the wettest period on record in the North American southwest. Mon, 16 Feb 2026 21:59:39 +0100 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-21-2026 A statistical approach to unveil phytoplankton adaptation to ocean fronts Théo Garcia, Laurina Oms, Xavier Milhaud, Andrea M. Doglioli, Monique Messié, Pierre Vandekerkhove, Claire Lacour, Gérald Grégori, and Denys Pommeret Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 21–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-21-2026, 2026 We studied how small, short-lived ocean features in the Mediterranean Sea affect microscopic plant communities that support ocean life. Using a new statistical approach, we found strong evidence that these features can host unique communities not found in surrounding waters. This discovery helps us better understand the role of ocean dynamics in shaping marine ecosystems, even when data are limited and conditions vary widely. Fri, 30 Jan 2026 21:59:39 +0100 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-1-2026 Bayesian hierarchical modelling of intensity-duration-frequency curves using a climate model large ensemble Alexander Lee Rischmuller, Benjamin Poschlod, and Jana Sillmann Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 12, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-1-2026, 2026 Extreme precipitation probability estimation is vital for hazard protection design but has high uncertainty. We tested six statistical models using 2000 years of climate data. Our Bayesian hierarchical duration-dependent Generalized Extreme Value model shows the highest accuracy and robustness for sample sizes between 30 and 100 years, making it highly promising for use with limited observational records. Mon, 05 Jan 2026 21:59:39 +0100 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-273-2025 Soil moisture–temperature coupling during extreme warm conditions in 2018 in Sweden: a case study with WRF-CTSM Iris Mužić, Øivind Hodnebrog, Yeliz A. Yilmaz, Terje K. Berntsen, Jana Sillmann, David M. Lawrence, and Paul A. Dirmeyer Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 11, 273–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-273-2025, 2025 This study investigates soil moisture–temperature coupling during the extreme warm conditions in May–August 2018 in southern and central Sweden using the merged GLEAM-E-OBS dataset and four simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Community Terrestrial Systems Model (WRF-CTSM). Based on changes in surface soil moisture, evaporative fraction, and daily maximum 2 m temperature, on average across the region and five datasets, the coupling lasted for 22 d. Tue, 02 Dec 2025 21:59:39 +0100 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-257-2025 A bi-level spatiotemporal clustering approach and its application to drought extraction T. Elana Christian, Amit N. Subrahmanya, Brandi Gamelin, Vishwas Rao, Noelle I. Samia, and Julie Bessac Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 11, 257–272, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-257-2025, 2025 We present a novel spatiotemporal clustering algorithm to extract spatiotemporal events based on their intensity. Our algorithm proceeds in two steps: (1) extracting intensity structures that are spatiotemporally consistent and, (2) separating individual events. We apply the algorithm to a novel drought index over the continental United States from 1980–2021 and show that it captures historical drought events over the continental United States and their spatiotemporal extents.  Fri, 28 Nov 2025 21:59:39 +0100 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-229-2025 Post-processing of wind gusts from COSMO-REA6 with a spatial Bayesian hierarchical extreme value model Philipp Ertz and Petra Friederichs Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 11, 229–256, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-229-2025, 2025 We develop a spatial statistical calibration of wind gust observations for the region of Germany with an interpolation to unobserved locations. Furthermore, the model is spatially adaptive and includes the station altitude both as explanatory variable and as offset to increase the distance between stations. This offset allows us to include mountain stations into the training data. Compared to a spatially constant model, the adaptive model improves the representation of extreme wind gusts. Thu, 27 Nov 2025 21:59:39 +0100 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-203-2025 A spatio-temporal weather generator for the temperature over France Caroline Cognot, Liliane Bel, David Métivier, and Sylvie Parey Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 11, 203–228, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-203-2025, 2025 Weather generators efficiently create realistic weather data based on historical records. This study introduces a daily temperature generator for large regions, separating deterministic factors (trends, seasonality) from random variations modeled using space-time interactions. Validated on French weather station data, it replicates observed patterns, including heatwaves. It offers a practical solution for generating realistic weather data, for applications such as climate impact assessments. Thu, 09 Oct 2025 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-159-2025 Interpretable seasonal multisite hidden Markov model for stochastic rain generation in France Emmanuel Gobet, David Métivier, and Sylvie Parey Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 11, 159–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-159-2025, 2025 Stochastic weather generators (SWGs) are statistical models used to study climate variability. We design an interpretable multisite SWG for precipitation, capable of learning large-scale weather regimes solely from French observational data. The model reproduces extreme events like droughts and heavy rain and is applied to climate models under historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This type of model aims to assess large-scale weather risks, such as those impacting energy systems and agriculture. Mon, 08 Sep 2025 21:59:39 +0200 https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-133-2025 A new data-standardization procedure for comprehensive outlier detection in correlated meteorological sensor data Natalie D. Benschop, Temesgen Zewotir, Rajen N. Naidoo, and Delia North Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 11, 133–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-133-2025, 2025 Meteorological data recorded at high frequency by automatic sensors are often marred by multiple forms of error. Existing validation techniques, in isolation, are sub-optimal for such error-prone data. We propose a new data-standardization procedure for the validation of strongly correlated series which commonly arise in meteorology. We show the procedure to be more comprehensive in the simultaneous detection of solitary spikes, shifts in series means, and irregular diurnal patterns. Fri, 05 Sep 2025 21:59:39 +0200