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Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography An international open-access journal on applied statistics
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We present new probabilistic estimates of model parameters in the MIT Earth System Model using more recent data and an updated method. Model output is compared to observed climate change to determine which sets of model parameters best simulate the past. In response to increasing surface temperatures and accelerated heat storage in the ocean, our estimates of climate sensitivity and ocean diffusivity are higher. Using a new interpolation algorithm results in smoother probability distributions.
ASCMO | Articles | Volume 4, issue 1/2
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 4, 19–36, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-4-19-2018
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 4, 19–36, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-4-19-2018

  30 Nov 2018

30 Nov 2018

Estimates of climate system properties incorporating recent climate change

Alex G. Libardoni et al.

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Short summary
We present new probabilistic estimates of model parameters in the MIT Earth System Model using more recent data and an updated method. Model output is compared to observed climate change to determine which sets of model parameters best simulate the past. In response to increasing surface temperatures and accelerated heat storage in the ocean, our estimates of climate sensitivity and ocean diffusivity are higher. Using a new interpolation algorithm results in smoother probability distributions.
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