Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
ASCMO
Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-243-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-243-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
07 Oct 2026
 | 07 Oct 2026

Non-stationary time series attribution for heatwaves over Europe

Pascal Meurer, Sebastian Buschow, Svenja Szemkus, and Petra Friederichs

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Cited articles

Barnes, C., Clarke, B., Rantanen, M., Skålevåg, A., Ødemark, K., Kjellström, E., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Otto, F., Zachariah, M., Kew, S., Bergin, C., Vrkic, D., Hansson, L. B., Vikström, T., Hodgson, P., Norberg, L., Holten, T., Virkkunen, S., Kuusterä, K., Aura, S., Haro, P., Drobina, D., and Sjölund, H.: Intense two-week heatwave in Fennoscandia hotter and more likely due to climate change, Centre for Environmental Policy, https://doi.org/10.25560/122924, 2025. a, b, c
Beirlant, J., Goegebeur, Y., Segers, J., and Teugels, J.: Statistics of Extremes: Theory and Applications, Wiley,522 pp., ISBN 0471976474, 2004. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n
Bortot, P. and Tawn, J. A.: Models for the extremes of Markov chains, Biometrika, 85, 851–867, https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/85.4.851, 1998. a
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The attribution of extreme events typically focuses on individual events, such as heatwaves. In our study, we extend this approach to include complete time series during such events in order to capture their temporal dependence. Using today's knowledge, we find that the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on heatwaves could already have been proven in the 1960s. It is very likely that 21st-century heatwaves over Europe would be impossible without these emissions.
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