Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
ASCMO
Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
10 Nov 2020
 | 10 Nov 2020

A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses

Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Robert Vautard, Karin van der Wiel, Andrew King, Fraser Lott, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, and Maarten van Aalst

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Short summary
Event attribution studies can now be performed at short notice. We document a protocol developed by the World Weather Attribution group. It includes choices of which events to analyse, the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis, and communication procedures. The protocol will be useful for future event attribution studies and as a basis for an operational attribution service.
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