Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses
Sjoukje Philip
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Sarah Kew
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Friederike Otto
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Robert Vautard
LSCE/IPSL, laboratoire CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, France
Karin van der Wiel
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Andrew King
ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3010, Australia
Fraser Lott
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Julie Arrighi
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
Roop Singh
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
Maarten van Aalst
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
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Latest update: 18 May 2026
Short summary
Event attribution studies can now be performed at short notice. We document a protocol developed by the World Weather Attribution group. It includes choices of which events to analyse, the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis, and communication procedures. The protocol will be useful for future event attribution studies and as a basis for an operational attribution service.
Event attribution studies can now be performed at short notice. We document a protocol developed...