Articles | Volume 10, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-159-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-159-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Formally combining different lines of evidence in extreme-event attribution
Friederike E. L. Otto
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
Clair Barnes
Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
Sjoukje Philip
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Sarah Kew
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
deceased, October 2021
Robert Vautard
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France
Related authors
Rosa Pietroiusti, Inne Vanderkelen, Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Lucy Temple, Mary Akurut, Philippe Bally, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 225–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides and drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in May 2020. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and investigate how human-induced climate change influenced the probability and intensity of the record-breaking lake levels and flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology.
Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 131–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 summer was accompanied by widespread soil moisture deficits, including an unprecedented drought in Europe. Combining several observation-based estimates and models, we find that such an event has become at least 5 and 20 times more likely due to human-induced climate change in western Europe and the northern extratropics, respectively. Strong regional warming fuels soil desiccation; hence, projections indicate even more potent future droughts as we progress towards a 2 °C warmer world.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Daniel M. Gilford, Andrew Pershing, Benjamin H. Strauss, Karsten Haustein, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 135–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-135-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-135-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a framework to produce global real-time estimates of how human-caused climate change affects the likelihood of daily weather events. A multi-method approach provides ensemble attribution estimates accompanied by confidence intervals, creating new opportunities for climate change communication. Methodological efficiency permits daily analysis using forecasts or observations. Applications with daily maximum temperature highlight the framework's capacity on daily and global scales.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Vikki Thompson, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Izidine Pinto, and Sarah F. Kew
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1136, 2024
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023 Storm Babet brought flooding and strong winds to the UK. We show that similar events are more likely when the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are higher. The North Atlantic exhibits multidecadal variability impacting the sea surface temperatures. This suggests that trends in storms similar to Babet are driven by multidecadal variability more than climate change. Increasing our knowledge of the causes of extreme weather can allow us to prepare and adapt for future changes.
Rosa Pietroiusti, Inne Vanderkelen, Friederike E. L. Otto, Clair Barnes, Lucy Temple, Mary Akurut, Philippe Bally, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, and Wim Thiery
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 225–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides and drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in May 2020. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and investigate how human-induced climate change influenced the probability and intensity of the record-breaking lake levels and flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology.
Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 131–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 summer was accompanied by widespread soil moisture deficits, including an unprecedented drought in Europe. Combining several observation-based estimates and models, we find that such an event has become at least 5 and 20 times more likely due to human-induced climate change in western Europe and the northern extratropics, respectively. Strong regional warming fuels soil desiccation; hence, projections indicate even more potent future droughts as we progress towards a 2 °C warmer world.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1689–1713, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.
Daniel M. Gilford, Andrew Pershing, Benjamin H. Strauss, Karsten Haustein, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 135–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-135-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-135-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a framework to produce global real-time estimates of how human-caused climate change affects the likelihood of daily weather events. A multi-method approach provides ensemble attribution estimates accompanied by confidence intervals, creating new opportunities for climate change communication. Methodological efficiency permits daily analysis using forecasts or observations. Applications with daily maximum temperature highlight the framework's capacity on daily and global scales.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Cited articles
Abramowitz, G., Herger, N., Gutmann, E., Hammerling, D., Knutti, R., Leduc, M., Lorenz, R., Pincus, R., and Schmidt, G. A.: ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019. a
Barnes, C.: WorldWeatherAttribution rwwa, Github [code], https://github.com/WorldWeatherAttribution/rwwa, last access: 29 October 2024. a
Chen, D., Rojas, M., Samset, B., Cobb, K., Niang, A. D., Edwards, P., Emori, S., Faria, S., Hawkins, E., Hope, P., Huybrechts, P., Meinshausen, M., Mustafa, S., Plattner, G.-K., and Tréguier, A.-M.: Framing, Context, and Methods, in: Framing, Context, and Methods. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V. et al., chap. 1, 147–286, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K. and New York, U.S.A., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.003, 2021. a, b
Eyring, V., Gillett, N. P., Achuta Rao, K. M., Barimalala, R., Barreiro Parrillo, M., Bellouin, N., Cassou, C., Durack, P., Kosaka, Y., McGregor, S., Min, S., Morgenstern, O., and Sun, Y.: Human Influence on the Climate System, in: Human Influence on the Climate System. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V. et al., chap. 1, 423–552, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K. and New York, U.S.A., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.005, 2021. a
Haughton, N., Abramowitz, G., Pitman, A., and Phipps, S. J.: Weighting climate model ensembles for mean and variance estimates, Clim. Dynam., 45, 3169–3181, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2531-3, 2015. a
Hauser, M., Gudmundsson, L., Orth, R., Jézéquel, A., Haustein, K., Vautard, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Wilcox, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought, Earth's Future, 5, 1034–1043, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000612, 2017. a
Jézéquel, A., Dépoues, V., Guillemot, H., Trolliet, M., Vanderlinden, J.-P., and Yiou, P.: Behind the veil of extreme event attribution, Climatic Change, 149, 367–383, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2252-9, 2018. a, b, c
Kew, S.: Climate Explorer Repository, Gitlab [code], https://gitlab.com/KNMI-OSS/climexp/climexp_numerical/-/blob/master/src/synthesis.f90?ref_type=heads, last access: 29 October 2024. a
Kew, S. F., Philip, S. Y., Hauser, M., Hobbins, M., Wanders, N., van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Wiel, K., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Kimutai, J., Funk, C., and Otto, F. E. L.: Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa, Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021. a, b
Leach, N. J., Li, S., Sparrow, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Lott, F. C., Weisheimer, A., and Allen, M. R.: Anthropogenic Influence on the 2018 Summer Warm Spell in Europe: The Impact of Different Spatio-Temporal Scales, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, S41–S46, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0201.1, 2020. a, b
Li, S. and Otto, F. E. L.: The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis, Climatic Change, 172, 1573–1480, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03344-9, 2022. a
Lloyd, E. A. and Oreskes, N.: Climate Change Attribution: When Is It Appropriate to Accept New Methods?, Earth's Future, 6, 311–325, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000665, 2018. a, b
Merrifield, A. L., Brunner, L., Lorenz, R., Medhaug, I., and Knutti, R.: An investigation of weighting schemes suitable for incorporating large ensembles into multi-model ensembles, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 807–834, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-807-2020, 2020. a
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change, The National Academies Press, https://doi.org/10.17226/21852, 2016. a, b
Noy, I., Wehner, M., Stone, D., Rosier, S., Frame, D., Lawal, K. A., and Newman, R.: Event attribution is ready to inform loss and damage negotiations, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 1279–1281, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01865-4, 2023. a
Otto, F. E.: Attribution of Extreme Events to Climate Change, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 48, 813–828, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-112621-083538, 2023. a
Otto, F. E. L. and Fabian, F.: Equalising the evidence base for adaptation and loss and damages, Glob. Policy, 15, 64–74, https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13269, 2023. a
Otto, F. E. L., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Eden, J. M., Stott, P. A., Karoly, D. J., and Allen, M. R.: The attribution question, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 813–816, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3089, 2016. a
Otto, F. E. L., Kew, S., Philip, S., Stott, P., and Oldenborgh, G. J. V.: How to Provide Useful Attribution Statements: Lessons Learned from Operationalizing Event Attribution in Europe, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 103, S21–S25, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0267.1, 2022. a
Otto, F. E. L., Zachariah, M., Saeed, F., Siddiqi, A., Kamil, S., Mushtaq, H., Arulalan, T., AchutaRao, K., Chaithra, S. T., Barnes, C., Philip, S., Kew, S., Vautard, R., Koren, G., Pinto, I., Wolski, P., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., van Aalst, M., Thalheimer, L., Raju, E., Li, S., Yang, W., Harrington, L. J., and Clarke, B.: Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan, Environmental Research: Climate, 2, 025001, https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/acbfd5, 2023. a, b
Philip, S. Y., Kew, S. F., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Aalbers, E., Otto, F. E. L., Haustein, K., Habets, F., and Singh, R.: Validation of a rapid attribution of the May/June 2016 flood-inducing precipitation in France to climate change, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1881–1898, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0074.1, 2018. a, b
Philip, S., Kew, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F., Vautard, R., van der Wiel, K., King, A., Lott, F., Arrighi, J., Singh, R., and van Aalst, M.: A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e
Robin, Y. and Ribes, A.: Nonstationary extreme value analysis for event attribution combining climate models and observations, Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 205–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020, 2020. a, b
Sansom, P. G., Stephenson, D. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Zappa, G., and Shaffrey, L.: Simple Uncertainty Frameworks for Selecting Weighting Schemes and Interpreting Multimodel Ensemble Climate Change Experiments, J. Climate, 26, 4017–4037, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00462.1, 2013. a
Shepherd, T. G.: A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution, Current Climate Change Reports, 2, 28–38, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y, 2016. a, b
Stocker, T. F., Sin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M. M. B., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M. (Eds.): Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K. and New York, U.S.A., ISBN-13 978-1107057999, 2013. a
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E. L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.-P., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., and Zwiers, F. W.: Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.380, 2016. a, b
van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Wiel, K., Sebastian, A., Singh, R. K., Arrighi, J., Otto, F. E. L., Haustein, K., Li, S., Vecchi, G. A., and Cullen, H.: Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 124009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2, 2017. a
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Philip, S., Kew, S., van Weele, M., Uhe, P., Otto, F., Singh, R., Pai, I., Cullen, H., and AchutaRao, K.: Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 365–381, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-365-2018, 2018. a
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E. L., Vautard, R., van der Wiel, K., Kew, S. F., Philip, S. Y., King, A. D., Lott, F. C., Arrighi, J., Singh, R., and van Aalst, M. K.: Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution, Climatic Change, 166, 13, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7, 2021. a, b
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., Otto, F. E. L., Seneviratne, S. I., Wehner, M. F., Stott, P. A., Hegerl, G. C., Philip, S. Y., and Kew, S. F.: Attributing and projecting heatwaves is hard: we can do better, Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002271, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002271, 2022. a
Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Otto, F., Stott, P., Christidis, N., van Oldenborgh, G. J., and Schaller, N.: Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 114009, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114009, 2016. a
Vautard, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F. E. L., Yiou, P., de Vries, H., van Meijgaard, E., Stepek, A., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Philip, S., Kew, S. F., Costella, C., Singh, R., and Tebaldi, C.: Human influence on European winter wind storms such as those of January 2018, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 271–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-271-2019, 2019. a, b, c
Zeder, J., Sippel, S., Pasche, O. C., Engelke, S., and Fischer, E. M.: The Effect of a Short Observational Record on the Statistics of Temperature Extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL104090, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104090, 2023. a
Short summary
To assess the role of climate change in individual weather events, different lines of evidence need to be combined in order to draw robust conclusions about whether observed changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Here we present a transparent method, developed over 8 years, to combine such lines of evidence in a single framework and draw conclusions about the overarching role of human-induced climate change in individual weather events.
To assess the role of climate change in individual weather events, different lines of evidence...