Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-195-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-195-2026
24 Jun 2026
 | 24 Jun 2026

Non-stationary GEV models for estimating design sea-states in a changing climate – applications to offshore wind farms along the French coasts

Nicolas Raillard, Coline Poppeschi, Tessa Chevallier, Youen Kervella, and Laurent Dubus

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Cited articles

Amlashi, H.: On the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Design of Offshore Wind Turbines, Ocean Renewable Energy, https://doi.org/10.1115/OMAE2024-128589, 2024. a, b
Barbaux, O., Naveau, P., Bertrand, N., and Ribes, A.: Integrating non-stationarity and uncertainty in design life levels based on climatological time series, Weather and Climate Extremes, 50, 100807, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100807, 2025. a
Barkanov, E., Penalba, M., Martinez, A., Martinez-Perurena, A., Zarketa-Astigarraga, A., and Iglesias, G.: Evolution of the European offshore renewable energy resource under multiple climate change scenarios and forecasting horizons via CMIP6, Energ. Convers. Manage., 301, 118058, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2023.118058, 2024. a, b
Bi, D., Dix, M., Marsland, S., O'Farrell, S., Sullivan, A., Bodman, R., Law, R., Harman, I., Srbinovsky, J., Rashid, H. A., Dobrohotoff, P., Mackallah, C., Yan, H., Hirst, A., Savita, A., Dias, F. B., Woodhouse, M., Fiedler, R., and Heerdegen, A.: Configuration and spin-up of ACCESS-CM2, the new generation Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator Coupled Model, Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science, 70, 225–251, https://doi.org/10.1071/es19040, 2020. a
Boucher, O., Denvil, S., Levavasseur, G., Cozic, A., Caubel, A., Foujols, M.-A., Meurdesoif, Y., Cadule, P., Devilliers, M., Ghattas, J., Lebas, N., Lurton, T., Mellul, L., Musat, I., Mignot, J., and Cheruy, F.: IPSL IPSL-CM6A-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP, Earth System Grid Federation, https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1534, 2018. a
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Short summary
This study examines how ocean wave conditions around France may change as the climate warms. Using a new statistical approach and multiple climate projections, it shows that extreme waves are likely to become more intense in winter and less severe in summer, especially along the Atlantic coast and the English Channel. The work also proposes a new way to define extreme sea-state conditions over the structure's lifetime, leading to better design.
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