Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-195-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-195-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Non-stationary GEV models for estimating design sea-states in a changing climate – applications to offshore wind farms along the French coasts
Nicolas Raillard
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
IFREMER, RDT, 29280, Plouzané, France
Coline Poppeschi
IFREMER, RDT, 29280, Plouzané, France
France Energies Marines, Plouzané, France
Tessa Chevallier
France Energies Marines, Plouzané, France
Youen Kervella
France Energies Marines, Plouzané, France
Laurent Dubus
RTE, Puteaux, France
World Energy & Meteorlogy Council, Norwich, UK
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Wind Energ. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-266, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-2025-266, 2025
Revised manuscript not accepted
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France aims for major offshore wind growth. We examined future climate impacts on wind, waves, and water levels. Results suggest that mean winds and waves may weaken, but extreme waves and sea levels will increase. These trends are nevertheless accompanied by strong model uncertainties. These findings are necessary for designing durable offshore wind farms in France and ensuring reliable energy production for decades to come.
Said Obakrim, Pierre Ailliot, Valérie Monbet, and Nicolas Raillard
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 67–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-67-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-67-2023, 2023
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Ocean wave climate has a significant impact on human activities, and its understanding is of socioeconomic and environmental importance. In this study, we propose a statistical model that predicts wave heights in a location in the Bay of Biscay. The proposed method allows us to understand the spatiotemporal relationship between wind and waves and predicts well both wind seas and swells.
Marceau Michel, Said Obakrim, Nicolas Raillard, Pierre Ailliot, and Valérie Monbet
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In this study, we introduce a deep learning algorithm to establish the relationship between wind and waves in order to predict the latter. The performance of the proposed method has been evaluated both on the output of numerical wave models and on in situ data and compared to other statistical methods developed by our research team. The results obtained confirm the interest of deep learning methods for forecasting ocean data.
Youen Kervella, Tessa Chevallier, Boutheina Oueslati, Nicolas Raillard, Marissa Yates, Matéo Pimoult, Coline Poppeschi, Anindita Patra, Neil Luxcey, Florent Guinot, and Laurent Dubus
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Revised manuscript not accepted
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France aims for major offshore wind growth. We examined future climate impacts on wind, waves, and water levels. Results suggest that mean winds and waves may weaken, but extreme waves and sea levels will increase. These trends are nevertheless accompanied by strong model uncertainties. These findings are necessary for designing durable offshore wind farms in France and ensuring reliable energy production for decades to come.
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Adv. Sci. Res., 22, 69–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-22-69-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-22-69-2025, 2025
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In this study, the quality of 10 and 100 m wind speeds from three different reanalyses (global and regional) are evaluated along the different coasts of France. The evaluation show that Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe (CERRA) has a high skill for surface wind speed on the three French seafronts, as well as for offshore wind speed at 100 m. Thus, CERRA appears to be the optimal reanalysis to use as a reference for offshore wind studies over the French maritime zone.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
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Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Said Obakrim, Pierre Ailliot, Valérie Monbet, and Nicolas Raillard
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Ocean wave climate has a significant impact on human activities, and its understanding is of socioeconomic and environmental importance. In this study, we propose a statistical model that predicts wave heights in a location in the Bay of Biscay. The proposed method allows us to understand the spatiotemporal relationship between wind and waves and predicts well both wind seas and swells.
Marceau Michel, Said Obakrim, Nicolas Raillard, Pierre Ailliot, and Valérie Monbet
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 83–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-83-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-83-2022, 2022
Short summary
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In this study, we introduce a deep learning algorithm to establish the relationship between wind and waves in order to predict the latter. The performance of the proposed method has been evaluated both on the output of numerical wave models and on in situ data and compared to other statistical methods developed by our research team. The results obtained confirm the interest of deep learning methods for forecasting ocean data.
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Short summary
This study examines how ocean wave conditions around France may change as the climate warms. Using a new statistical approach and multiple climate projections, it shows that extreme waves are likely to become more intense in winter and less severe in summer, especially along the Atlantic coast and the English Channel. The work also proposes a new way to define extreme sea-state conditions over the structure's lifetime, leading to better design.
This study examines how ocean wave conditions around France may change as the climate warms....