Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
ASCMO
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-87-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-87-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
24 Mar 2026
 | 24 Mar 2026

Selecting the best distribution for modeling trends in low, medium, and extreme daily precipitation under climate change

Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, Guillaume Evin, and Emmanuel Paquet

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Short summary
This study advances nonstationary precipitation modeling by using single, flexible distributions to analyze trends across the full daily spectrum. We demonstrate that evolving shape parameters are critical for accurately capturing observed differential changes in low, medium, and extreme quantiles. This method ensures statistical consistency, providing reliable trend assessments over the two-component framework common in climate impact analysis. 
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