A space–time statistical climate model for hurricane intensification in the North Atlantic basin

Fraza, Erik; Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-105-2016

Articles | Volume 2, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-105-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Hierarchical and exploratory statistical methods for ocean...

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-105-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 2, issue 2

02 Aug 2016

| 02 Aug 2016

A space–time statistical climate model for hurricane intensification in the North Atlantic basin

Erik Fraza, James B. Elsner, and Thomas H. Jagger

Data sets

Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2) National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml#hurdat

NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V4 NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.html#detail

Short summary

Climate influences on hurricane intensification are investigated by averaging hourly intensification rates over the period 1975–2014 in 8° by 8° latitude–longitude grid cells. The statistical effects of hurricane intensity, sea-surface temperature (SST), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) are quantified. Intensity, SST, and NAO had a positive effect on intensification rates. The NAO effect should be further studied.