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Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography An international open-access journal on applied statistics
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The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies on the estimate of small probabilities (with and without climate change). Such events are connected to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper links such probabilities with properties of the atmospheric circulation by using a Bayesian decomposition. We test this decomposition on a case of extreme precipitation in the UK, in January 2014.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17–31, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 17–31, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017

  18 Apr 2017

18 Apr 2017

A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution

Pascal Yiou et al.

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Latest update: 19 Jan 2021
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Short summary
The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies on the estimate of small probabilities (with and without climate change). Such events are connected to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper links such probabilities with properties of the atmospheric circulation by using a Bayesian decomposition. We test this decomposition on a case of extreme precipitation in the UK, in January 2014.
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