Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-17-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
A statistical framework for conditional extreme event attribution
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, U Paris-Saclay, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Aglaé Jézéquel
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, U Paris-Saclay, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Philippe Naveau
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, U Paris-Saclay, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Frederike E. L. Otto
Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Robert Vautard
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, U Paris-Saclay, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Mathieu Vrac
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, U Paris-Saclay, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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Cited
46 citations as recorded by crossref.
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Latest update: 01 May 2026
Short summary
The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies on the estimate of small probabilities (with and without climate change). Such events are connected to the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This paper links such probabilities with properties of the atmospheric circulation by using a Bayesian decomposition. We test this decomposition on a case of extreme precipitation in the UK, in January 2014.
The attribution of classes of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation or heatwaves, relies...