Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
ASCMO
Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-33-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-33-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
09 Jun 2017
 | 09 Jun 2017

Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record

Andrew Poppick, Elisabeth J. Moyer, and Michael L. Stein

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Latest update: 29 Oct 2025
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Short summary
We show that ostensibly empirical methods of analyzing trends in the global mean temperature record, which appear to de-emphasize assumptions, can nevertheless produce misleading inferences about trends and associated uncertainty. We illustrate how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable results, and show the importance of adequately characterizing internal variability for estimating trend uncertainty.
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