Articles | Volume 3, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-33-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-33-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Estimating trends in the global mean temperature record
Andrew Poppick
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton College,
Northfield, MN, USA
Elisabeth J. Moyer
Department of the Geophysical Sciences,
University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
Michael L. Stein
Department of Statistics,
University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
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Benjamin W. Clouser, Carly C. KleinStern, Adrien Desmoulin, Clare E. Singer, Jason M. St. Clair, Thomas F. Hanisco, David S. Sayres, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 19, 1147–1163, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1147-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-19-1147-2026, 2026
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Water molecules comes in several varieties, of which H216O is the most common. These varieties behave differently enough under freezing to create strong changes in the ratio of heavy to light water molecules. Here we compare observations of these ratios from satellites and high-altitude airborne instruments. These observations provide information about how air reaches the upper parts of the atmosphere, so it is important to reconcile difference between different modes of observations.
Benjamin W. Clouser, Laszlo C. Sarkozy, Clare E. Singer, Carly C. KleinStern, Adrien Desmoulin, Dylan Gaeta, Sergey Khaykin, Stephen Gabbard, Stephen Shertz, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 18, 6465–6491, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-6465-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-18-6465-2025, 2025
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The water molecule comes in several different varieties, which are nearly indistinguishable in daily life. However, slight differences between the water molecule types can be exploited to achieve better scientific understanding of parts of Earth's atmosphere. In this work we describe the design, construction, and operation of an instrument meant to measure these molecules aboard research aircraft up to altitudes of 20 km.
Paul Konopka, Christian Rolf, Marc von Hobe, Sergey M. Khaykin, Benjamin Clouser, Elisabeth Moyer, Fabrizio Ravegnani, Francesco D'Amato, Silvia Viciani, Nicole Spelten, Armin Afchine, Martina Krämer, Fred Stroh, and Felix Ploeger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 12935–12947, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12935-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-12935-2023, 2023
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We studied water vapor in a critical region of the atmosphere, the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone, using rare in situ observations. Our study shows that extremely high water vapor values observed in the stratosphere within the Asian monsoon anticyclone still undergo significant freeze-drying and that water vapor concentrations set by the Lagrangian dry point are a better proxy for the stratospheric water vapor budget than rare observations of enhanced water mixing ratios.
Kara D. Lamb, Jerry Y. Harrington, Benjamin W. Clouser, Elisabeth J. Moyer, Laszlo Sarkozy, Volker Ebert, Ottmar Möhler, and Harald Saathoff
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 6043–6064, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6043-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-6043-2023, 2023
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This study investigates how ice grows directly from vapor in cirrus clouds by comparing observations of populations of ice crystals growing in a cloud chamber against models developed in the context of single-crystal laboratory studies. We demonstrate that previous discrepancies between different experimental measurements do not necessarily point to different physical interpretations but are rather due to assumptions that were made in terms of how experiments were modeled in previous studies.
Clare E. Singer, Benjamin W. Clouser, Sergey M. Khaykin, Martina Krämer, Francesco Cairo, Thomas Peter, Alexey Lykov, Christian Rolf, Nicole Spelten, Armin Afchine, Simone Brunamonti, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 4767–4783, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4767-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-4767-2022, 2022
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In situ measurements of water vapor in the upper troposphere are necessary to study cloud formation and hydration of the stratosphere but challenging due to cold–dry conditions. We compare measurements from three water vapor instruments from the StratoClim campaign in 2017. In clear sky (clouds), point-by-point differences were <1.5±8 % (<1±8 %). This excellent agreement allows detection of fine-scale structures required to understand the impact of convection on stratospheric water vapor.
Sergey M. Khaykin, Elizabeth Moyer, Martina Krämer, Benjamin Clouser, Silvia Bucci, Bernard Legras, Alexey Lykov, Armin Afchine, Francesco Cairo, Ivan Formanyuk, Valentin Mitev, Renaud Matthey, Christian Rolf, Clare E. Singer, Nicole Spelten, Vasiliy Volkov, Vladimir Yushkov, and Fred Stroh
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3169–3189, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3169-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3169-2022, 2022
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The Asian monsoon anticyclone is the key contributor to the global annual maximum in lower stratospheric water vapour. We investigate the impact of deep convection on the lower stratospheric water using a unique set of observations aboard the high-altitude M55-Geophysica aircraft deployed in Nepal in summer 2017 within the EU StratoClim project. We find that convective plumes of wet air can persist within the Asian anticyclone for weeks, thereby enhancing the occurrence of high-level clouds.
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Short summary
We show that ostensibly empirical methods of analyzing trends in the global mean temperature record, which appear to de-emphasize assumptions, can nevertheless produce misleading inferences about trends and associated uncertainty. We illustrate how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable results, and show the importance of adequately characterizing internal variability for estimating trend uncertainty.
We show that ostensibly empirical methods of analyzing trends in the global mean temperature...