Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
ASCMO
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-93-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-93-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 3, issue 2
26 Oct 2017
 | 26 Oct 2017

Probabilistic evaluation of competing climate models

Amy Braverman, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Megan Heyman, and Noel Cressie

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Short summary
In this paper, we introduce a method for expressing the agreement between climate model output time series and time series of observational data as a probability value. Our metric is an estimate of the probability that one would obtain two time series as similar as the ones under consideration, if the climate model and the observed series actually shared the same underlying climate signal.
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