Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
10 Apr 2019
 | 10 Apr 2019

Future climate emulations using quantile regressions on large ensembles

Matz A. Haugen, Michael L. Stein, Ryan L. Sriver, and Elisabeth J. Moyer


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Short summary
This work uses current temperature observations combined with climate models to project future temperature estimates, e.g., 100 years into the future. We accomplish this by modeling temperature as a smooth function of time both in the seasonal variation as well as in the annual trend. These smooth functions are estimated at multiple quantiles that are all projected into the future. We hope that this work can be used as a template for how other climate variables can be projected into the future.