Articles | Volume 5, issue 1
10 Apr 2019
 | 10 Apr 2019

Future climate emulations using quantile regressions on large ensembles

Matz A. Haugen, Michael L. Stein, Ryan L. Sriver, and Elisabeth J. Moyer

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Cited articles

Boberg, F. and Christensen, J. H.: Overestimation of Mediterranean summer temperature projections due to model deficiencies, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 433–436, 2012. a
Bondell, H. D., Reich, B. J., and Wang, H.: Noncrossing quantile regression curve estimation, Biometrika, 97, 825–838, 2010. a
Brown, S. J., Caesar, J., and Ferro, C. A. T.: Global changes in extreme daily temperature since 1950, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D05115,, 2008. a
Bürger, G., Schulla, J., and Werner, A.: Estimates of future flow, including extremes, of the Columbia River headwaters, Water Resour. Res., 47, W10520,, 2011. a
Cannon, A. J.: Multivariate bias correction of climate model output: Matching marginal distributions and intervariable dependence structure, J. Climate, 29, 7045–7064, 2016. a
Short summary
This work uses current temperature observations combined with climate models to project future temperature estimates, e.g., 100 years into the future. We accomplish this by modeling temperature as a smooth function of time both in the seasonal variation as well as in the annual trend. These smooth functions are estimated at multiple quantiles that are all projected into the future. We hope that this work can be used as a template for how other climate variables can be projected into the future.