A new energy-balance approach to linear filtering for estimating effective radiative forcing from temperature time series

Cummins, Donald P.; Stephenson, David B.; Stott, Peter A.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-91-2020

Articles | Volume 6, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-91-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-91-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 6, issue 2

17 Sep 2020

| 17 Sep 2020

A new energy-balance approach to linear filtering for estimating effective radiative forcing from temperature time series

Donald P. Cummins, David B. Stephenson, and Peter A. Stott

Data sets

Forcings, Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1 (https://github.com/timothyandrews/HadGEM3-ERF-Timeseries) T. Andrews, M.~B. Andrews, A. Bodas-Salcedo, G. S. Jones, T. Kulhbrodt, J. Manners, M. B. Menary, J. Ridley, M. A. Ringer, A. A. Sellar, C. A. Senior, and Y. Tang https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001866

Model code and software

Coverage Bias in the {HadCRUT4} Temperature Series and its Impact on Recent Temperature Trends (https://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/had4_krig_annual_v2_0_0.txt) K. Cowtan and R. G. Way https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2297

Short summary

We have developed a novel and fast statistical method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing (ERF), a measure of the net effect of greenhouse gas emissions on Earth's energy budget. Our method works by inverting a recursive digital filter energy balance representation of global climate models and has been successfully validated using simulated data from UK Met Office climate models. We have estimated time series of historical ERF by applying our method to the global temperature record.