Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
ASCMO
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-53-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-53-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 7, issue 2
23 Sep 2021
 | 23 Sep 2021

Forecast score distributions with imperfect observations

Julie Bessac and Philippe Naveau

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Latest update: 27 Oct 2025
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Short summary
We propose a new forecast evaluation scheme in the context of models that incorporate errors of the verification data. We rely on existing scoring rules and incorporate uncertainty and error of the verification data through a hidden variable and the conditional expectation of scores. By considering scores to be random variables, one can access the entire range of their distribution and illustrate that the commonly used mean score can be a misleading representative of the distribution.
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