Quantifying the statistical dependence of mid-latitude heatwave intensity and likelihood on prevalent physical drivers and climate change

Zeder, Joel; Fischer, Erich M.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023

Articles | Volume 9, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 9, issue 2

14 Jul 2023

| 14 Jul 2023

Quantifying the statistical dependence of mid-latitude heatwave intensity and likelihood on prevalent physical drivers and climate change

Joel Zeder and Erich M. Fischer

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023-supplement

Data sets

Pre-processed climate model and reanalysis data Joel Zeder and Erich Fischer https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000615056

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present J. Muñoz Sabater https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac

Short summary

The intensities of recent heatwave events, such as the record-breaking heatwave in early June 2021 in the Pacific Northwest area, are substantially altered by climate change. We further quantify the contribution of the local weather situation and the land surface conditions with a statistical model suited for extreme data. Based on this method, we can answer what if questions, such as estimating the change in the 2021 heatwave temperature if it happened in a world without climate change.