Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
14 Jul 2023
| 14 Jul 2023
Quantifying the statistical dependence of mid-latitude heatwave intensity and likelihood on prevalent physical drivers and climate change
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,
ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Erich M. Fischer
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science,
ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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Luna Bloin-Wibe, Robin Noyelle, Vincent Humphrey, Urs Beyerle, Reto Knutti, and Erich Fischer
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-525, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-525, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
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Weather extremes have become more frequent due to climate change. It is therefore crucial to understand them, but since they are rarer than average weather, they are challenging to study. Ensemble Boosting (EB) is a tool that generates extreme climate model events efficiently, but without directly estimating their probability. Here, we present a method to recover these probabilities for a global climate model. EB can thus now be used to find extremes with meaningful statistical information.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
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The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Sebastian Sippel, Clair Barnes, Camille Cadiou, Erich Fischer, Sarah Kew, Marlene Kretschmer, Sjoukje Philip, Theodore G. Shepherd, Jitendra Singh, Robert Vautard, and Pascal Yiou
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 943–957, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-943-2024, 2024
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Winter temperatures in central Europe have increased. But cold winters can still cause problems for energy systems, infrastructure, or human health. Here we tested whether a record-cold winter, such as the one observed in 1963 over central Europe, could still occur despite climate change. The answer is yes: it is possible, but it is very unlikely. Our results rely on climate model simulations and statistical rare event analysis. In conclusion, society must be prepared for such cold winters.
Malte Meinshausen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kathleen Beyer, Greg Bodeker, Olivier Boucher, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Aïda Diongue-Niang, Fatima Driouech, Erich Fischer, Piers Forster, Michael Grose, Gerrit Hansen, Zeke Hausfather, Tatiana Ilyina, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Joyce Kimutai, Andrew D. King, June-Yi Lee, Chris Lennard, Tabea Lissner, Alexander Nauels, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Hans Pörtner, Joeri Rogelj, Maisa Rojas, Joyashree Roy, Bjørn H. Samset, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Sonia Seneviratne, Christopher J. Smith, Sophie Szopa, Adelle Thomas, Diana Urge-Vorsatz, Guus J. M. Velders, Tokuta Yokohata, Tilo Ziehn, and Zebedee Nicholls
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4533–4559, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024, 2024
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The scientific community is considering new scenarios to succeed RCPs and SSPs for the next generation of Earth system model runs to project future climate change. To contribute to that effort, we reflect on relevant policy and scientific research questions and suggest categories for representative emission pathways. These categories are tailored to the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal, high-risk outcomes in the absence of further climate policy and worlds “that could have been”.
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Fabian von Trentini, Emma E. Aalbers, Erich M. Fischer, and Ralf Ludwig
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1013–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1013-2020, 2020
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We compare the inter-annual variability of three single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), downscaled with three regional climate models over Europe for seasonal temperature and precipitation, the number of heatwaves, and maximum length of dry periods. They all show good consistency with observational data. The magnitude of variability and the future development are similar in many cases. In general, variability increases for summer indicators and decreases for winter indicators.
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020
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Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future greenhouse gases emissions are unknown and climate is to some extent chaotic. To partition and understand these sources of uncertainty and make the best use of climate projections, large ensembles with multiple climate models are needed. Such ensembles now exist in a public data archive. We provide several novel applications focused on global and regional temperature and precipitation projections.
Jakob Zscheischler, Erich M. Fischer, and Stefan Lange
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 31–43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-31-2019, 2019
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Many climate models have biases in different variables throughout the world. Adjusting these biases is necessary for estimating climate impacts. Here we demonstrate that widely used univariate bias adjustment methods do not work well for multivariate impacts. We illustrate this problem using fire risk and heat stress as impact indicators. Using an approach that adjusts not only biases in the individual climate variables but also biases in the correlation between them can resolve these problems.
Stefan Brönnimann, Jan Rajczak, Erich M. Fischer, Christoph C. Raible, Marco Rohrer, and Christoph Schär
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2047–2056, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2047-2018, 2018
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Heavy precipitation events in Switzerland are expected to become more intense, but the seasonality also changes. Analysing a large set of model simulations, we find that annual maximum rainfall events become less frequent in late summer and more frequent in early summer and early autumn. The seasonality shift is arguably related to summer drying. Results suggest that changes in the seasonal cycle need to be accounted for when preparing for moderately extreme precipitation events.
Camille Li, Clio Michel, Lise Seland Graff, Ingo Bethke, Giuseppe Zappa, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Erich Fischer, Ben J. Harvey, Trond Iversen, Martin P. King, Harinarayan Krishnan, Ludwig Lierhammer, Daniel Mitchell, John Scinocca, Hideo Shiogama, Dáithí A. Stone, and Justin J. Wettstein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 359–382, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-359-2018, 2018
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This study investigates the midlatitude atmospheric circulation response to 1.5°C and 2.0°C of warming using modelling experiments run for the HAPPI project (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis & Projected Impacts). While the chaotic nature of the atmospheric flow dominates in these low-end warming scenarios, some local changes emerge. Case studies explore precipitation impacts both for regions that dry (Mediterranean) and regions that get wetter (Europe, North American west coast).
Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Dann Mitchell, Hideo Shiogama, Erich Fischer, Lise S. Graff, Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Ludwig Lierhammer, Benjamin Sanderson, and Harinarayan Krishnan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 299–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-299-2018, 2018
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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change challenged the scientific community to describe the impacts of stabilizing the global temperature at its 21st Conference of Parties. A specific target of 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels had not been seriously considered by the climate modeling community prior to the Paris Agreement. This paper analyzes heat waves in simulations designed for this target. We find there are reductions in extreme temperature compared to a 2 °C target.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
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This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tabea K. Lissner, Erich M. Fischer, Jan Wohland, Mahé Perrette, Antonius Golly, Joeri Rogelj, Katelin Childers, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, William Hare, and Michiel Schaeffer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 327–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, 2016
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We present for the first time a comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We report substantial impact differences in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, regional water availability and agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. The increase in climate impacts is particularly pronounced in tropical and sub-tropical regions.
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Stephen Jewson, Trevor Sweeting, and Lynne Jewson
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 11, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-1-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-1-2025, 2025
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We investigate how to make statistical predictions of extreme weather such that events predicted to occur with a probability of 1 % will occur 1 % of the time. We apply the methods we describe to a standard extreme weather attribution example from the recent climate literature. We find that the methods we describe imply that extremes are roughly twice as likely as when estimated using maximum likelihood. We have developed a software package to make it easy to apply these methods.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Katrin Nissen, Lukas Brunner, and Bruno Merz
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, 2024
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We present a novel stochastic weather generator conditioned on circulation patterns and regional temperature, accounting for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric changes. We extensively evaluate the model for the central European region. It statistically downscales precipitation for future periods, generating long, spatially and temporally consistent series. Results suggest an increase in extreme precipitation over the region, offering key benefits for hydrological impact studies.
Juliette Mukangango, Amanda Muyskens, and Benjamin W. Priest
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 143–158, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-143-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-143-2024, 2024
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In this study, we investigated the performance of Gaussian process regression (GP) models in handling outlier-affected spatial datasets. Our findings emphasized that models with the proposed methods provided accurate predictions and reliable uncertainty quantification, showcasing resilience against outliers. Overall, our study contributes to advancing the understanding of GP regression in spatial contexts and offers practical solutions to enhance its applicability in outlier-rich environments.
Joshua P. French, Piotr S. Kokoszka, and Seth McGinnis
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 123–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-123-2024, 2024
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Future climate behavior is typically modeled using computer-based simulations, which are generated for both historical and future time periods. The trustworthiness of these models can be assessed by determining whether the simulated historical climate matches what was observed. We provide a tool that allows researchers to identify major differences between observed climate and climate model predictions, which will hopefully lead to further model refinements.
Ágnes Baran and Sándor Baran
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 105–122, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-105-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-105-2024, 2024
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The paper proposes a novel parametric model for statistical post-processing of visibility ensemble forecasts; investigates various approaches to parameter estimation; and, using two case studies, provides a detailed comparison with the existing state-of-the-art forecasts. The introduced approach consistently outperforms both the raw ensemble forecasts and the reference parametric post-processing method.
Addison J. Hu, Mikael Kuusela, Ann B. Lee, Donata Giglio, and Kimberly M. Wood
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 69–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-69-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-69-2024, 2024
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We introduce a new statistical framework to estimate the change in subsurface ocean temperature following the passage of a tropical cyclone (TC). Our approach combines tools handling seasonal variations and spatial dependence in the data, culminating in a three-dimensional characterization of the interaction between TCs and the ocean. Our work allows us to obtain new scientific insights, and we expect it to be generally applicable to studying the impact of TCs on other ocean phenomena.
Giorgio Baiamonte, Carmelo Agnese, Carmelo Cammalleri, Elvira Di Nardo, Stefano Ferraris, and Tommaso Martini
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 51–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-51-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-51-2024, 2024
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In hydrology, the probability distributions are used to determine the probability of occurrence of rainfall events. In this study, two different methods for modeling rainfall time characteristics have been applied: a direct method and an indirect method that make it possible to relax the assumptions of the renewal process. The analysis was extended to two additional time variables that may be of great interest for practical hydrological applications: wet chains and dry chains.
Timothy DelSole and Michael K. Tippett
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 1–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-1-2024, 2024
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This paper introduces a method to assess whether two data sets come from the same source. Current methods do not adequately consider spatial and temporal correlations and their annual cycles in a comprehensive test. This method addresses that gap, thereby providing a new and rigorous tool for evaluating the realism of climate simulations and measuring changes in variability over time.
Maggie D. Bailey, Douglas Nychka, Manajit Sengupta, Aron Habte, Yu Xie, and Soutir Bandyopadhyay
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-103-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-103-2023, 2023
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To ensure photovoltaic (PV) plants last, we need to understand how climate change affects solar radiation. Climate models help predict future radiation for PV plants, but there is often uncertainty. We explore this uncertainty and its impact on building PV plants. We highlight the importance of considering uncertainties for accurate planning and management. A California case study shows a practical application for the solar industry.
Said Obakrim, Pierre Ailliot, Valérie Monbet, and Nicolas Raillard
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 67–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-67-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-67-2023, 2023
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Ocean wave climate has a significant impact on human activities, and its understanding is of socioeconomic and environmental importance. In this study, we propose a statistical model that predicts wave heights in a location in the Bay of Biscay. The proposed method allows us to understand the spatiotemporal relationship between wind and waves and predicts well both wind seas and swells.
Benjamin James Washington, Lynne Seymour, and Thomas L. Mote
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 1–28, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-1-2023, 2023
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We develop new methodology to statistically model known bias in general atmospheric circulation models. We focus on Puerto Rico specifically because of other important ongoing and long-term ecological and environmental research taking place there. Our methods work even in the presence of Puerto Rico's broken climate record. With our methods, we find that climate change will not only favor a warmer and wetter climate in Puerto Rico, but also increase the frequency of extreme rainfall events.
Katarina Lashgari, Gudrun Brattström, Anders Moberg, and Rolf Sundberg
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 225–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-225-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-225-2022, 2022
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This work theoretically motivates an extension of the statistical model used in so-called detection and attribution studies to structural equation modelling. The application of one of the models suggested is exemplified in a small numerical study, whose aim was to check the assumptions typically placed on ensembles of climate model simulations when constructing mean sequences. he result of this study indicated that some ensembles for some regions may not satisfy the assumptions in question.
Katarina Lashgari, Anders Moberg, and Gudrun Brattström
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 249–271, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-249-2022, 2022
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The performance of a new statistical framework containing various structural equation modelling (SEM) models is evaluated in a pseudo-proxy experiment in comparison with the performance of statistical models used in many detection and attribution studies. Each statistical model was fitted to seven continental-scale regional temperature data sets. The results indicated the SEM specification is the most appropriate for describing the underlying latent structure of the simulated data analysed.
Qiuyi Wu, Julie Bessac, Whitney Huang, Jiali Wang, and Rao Kotamarthi
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 205–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-205-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-205-2022, 2022
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We study wind conditions and their potential future changes across the U.S. via a statistical conditional framework. We conclude that changes between historical and future wind directions are small, but wind speeds are generally weakened in the projected period, with some locations being intensified. Moreover, winter wind speeds are projected to decrease in the northwest, Colorado, and the northern Great Plains (GP), while summer wind speeds over the southern GP slightly increase in the future.
Timothy DelSole and Michael K. Tippett
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 7, 73–85, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-73-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-73-2021, 2021
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After a new climate model is constructed, a natural question is whether it generates realistic simulations. Here,
realisticdoes not mean that the detailed patterns on a particular day are correct, but rather that the statistics over many years are realistic. Past approaches to answering this question often neglect correlations in space and time. This paper proposes a method for answering this question that accounts for correlations in space and time.
Julie Bessac and Philippe Naveau
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 7, 53–71, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-53-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-53-2021, 2021
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We propose a new forecast evaluation scheme in the context of models that incorporate errors of the verification data. We rely on existing scoring rules and incorporate uncertainty and error of the verification data through a hidden variable and the conditional expectation of scores. By considering scores to be random variables, one can access the entire range of their distribution and illustrate that the commonly used mean score can be a misleading representative of the distribution.
Eric Gilleland
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 7, 13–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-13-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-13-2021, 2021
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Verifying high-resolution weather forecasts has become increasingly complicated,
and simple, easy-to-understand summary measures are a good alternative. Recent work has demonstrated some common pitfalls with many such summaries. Here, new summary measures are introduced that do not suffer from these drawbacks, while still providing meaningful information.
Thomas Patrick Leahy
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 7, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-1-2021, 2021
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This study looked at estimating damages caused by hurricanes in the United States. It assessed the relationship between the maximum wind speed at landfall and the resulting damage caused. The study found that the complex processes that determine the size of the damages inflicted could be estimated using this simple relationship. This work could be used to examine how often extreme damage events are likely to occur and the impact of stronger hurricane winds on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts.
Yoann Robin and Aurélien Ribes
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 205–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020, 2020
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We have developed a new statistical method to describe how a severe weather event, such as a heat wave, may have been influenced by climate change. Our method incorporates both observations and data from various climate models to reflect climate model uncertainty. Our results show that both the probability and the intensity of the French July 2019 heatwave have increased significantly in response to human influence. We find that this heat wave might not have been possible without climate change.
Timothy DelSole and Michael K. Tippett
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 159–175, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-159-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-159-2020, 2020
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Scientists often are confronted with the question of whether two time series are statistically distinguishable. This paper proposes a test for answering this question. The basic idea is to fit each time series to a time series model and then test whether the parameters in that model are equal. If a difference is detected, then new ways of visualizing those differences are proposed, including a clustering technique and a method based on optimal initial conditions.
Joshua North, Zofia Stanley, William Kleiber, Wiebke Deierling, Eric Gilleland, and Matthias Steiner
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-79-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-79-2020, 2020
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Very short-term forecasting, called nowcasting, is used to monitor storms that pose a significant threat to people and infrastructure. These threats could include lightning strikes, hail, heavy precipitation, strong winds, and possible tornados. This paper proposes a fast approach to nowcasting lightning threats using simple statistical methods. The proposed model results in fast nowcasts that are more accurate than a competitive, computationally expensive, approach.
Ola Haug, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Sigrunn H. Sørbye, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-1-2020, 2020
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Trends in gridded temperature data are commonly assessed independently for each grid cell, ignoring spatial coherencies. This may severely affect the interpretation of the results. This article proposes a space–time model for temperatures that allows for joint assessments of the trend across locations. In a case study of summer season trends in Europe, it is found that the region with a significant trend under spatial coherency is vastly different from that under independent assessments.
Alexis Hannart
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5, 161–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-161-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-161-2019, 2019
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In climate change attribution studies, one often seeks to maximize a signal-to-noise ratio, where the
signalis the anthropogenic response and the
noiseis climate variability. A solution commonly used in D&A studies thus far consists of projecting the signal on the subspace spanned by the leading eigenvectors of climate variability. Here I show that this approach is vastly suboptimal – in fact, it leads instead to maximizing the noise-to-signal ratio. I then describe an improved solution.
Moritz N. Lang, Georg J. Mayr, Reto Stauffer, and Achim Zeileis
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5, 115–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-115-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-115-2019, 2019
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Accurate wind forecasts are of great importance for decision-making processes in today's society. This work presents a novel probabilistic post-processing method for wind vector forecasts employing a bivariate Gaussian response distribution. To capture a possible mismatch between the predicted and observed wind direction caused by location-specific properties, the approach incorporates a smooth rotation of the wind direction conditional on the season and the forecasted ensemble wind direction.
X. Joey Wang, John R. J. Thompson, W. John Braun, and Douglas G. Woolford
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5, 57–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-57-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-57-2019, 2019
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This paper presents the analysis of data from small-scale laboratory experimental smouldering fires that were digitally video-recorded. The video images of these fires bear a resemblance to remotely sensed images of wildfires and provide an opportunity to fit and assess a spatial model for fire spread that attempts to account for uncertainty in fire growth. We found that the fitting method is feasible, and the spatial model provides a suitable mathematical for the fire spread process.
Robin Tokmakian and Peter Challenor
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-17-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-17-2019, 2019
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As an example of how to robustly determine climate model uncertainty, the paper describes an experiment that perturbs the initial conditions for the ocean's temperature of a climate model. A total of 30 perturbed simulations are used (via an emulator) to estimate spatial uncertainties for temperature and precipitation fields. We also examined (using maximum covariance analysis) how ocean temperatures affect air temperatures and precipitation over land and the importance of feedback processes.
Thorsten Simon, Georg J. Mayr, Nikolaus Umlauf, and Achim Zeileis
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-5-1-2019, 2019
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Lightning in Alpine regions is associated with events such as thunderstorms,
extreme precipitation, high wind gusts, flash floods, and debris flows.
We present a statistical approach to predict lightning counts based on
numerical weather predictions. Lightning counts are considered on a grid
with 18 km mesh size. Skilful prediction is obtained for a forecast horizon
of 5 days over complex terrain.
Tony E. Wong
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 4, 53–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-4-53-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-4-53-2018, 2018
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Millions of people worldwide are at a risk of coastal flooding, and this number will increase as the climate continues to change. This study analyzes how climate change affects future flood hazards. A new model that uses multiple climate variables for flood hazard is developed. For the case study of Norfolk, Virginia, the model predicts 23 cm higher flood levels relative to previous work. This work shows the importance of accounting for climate change in effectively managing coastal risks.
Amy Braverman, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Megan Heyman, and Noel Cressie
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 93–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-93-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-93-2017, 2017
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In this paper, we introduce a method for expressing the agreement between climate model output time series and time series of observational data as a probability value. Our metric is an estimate of the probability that one would obtain two time series as similar as the ones under consideration, if the climate model and the observed series actually shared the same underlying climate signal.
Joshua P. French, Seth McGinnis, and Armin Schwartzman
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 67–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-67-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-67-2017, 2017
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We assess the mean temperature effect of global and regional climate model combinations for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program using varying classes of linear regression models, including possible interaction effects. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We conclusively show that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference.
László Varga and András Zempléni
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 55–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-55-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-55-2017, 2017
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This paper proposes a new generalisation of the block bootstrap methodology, which allows for any positive real number as expected block size. We use this bootstrap for determining the p values of a homogeneity test for copulas. The methods are applied to a temperature data set - we have found some significant changes in the dependence structure between the standardised temperature values of pairs of observation points within the Carpathian Basin.
Andrew Poppick, Elisabeth J. Moyer, and Michael L. Stein
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 33–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-33-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-33-2017, 2017
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We show that ostensibly empirical methods of analyzing trends in the global mean temperature record, which appear to de-emphasize assumptions, can nevertheless produce misleading inferences about trends and associated uncertainty. We illustrate how a simple but physically motivated trend model can provide better-fitting and more broadly applicable results, and show the importance of adequately characterizing internal variability for estimating trend uncertainty.
John Tipton, Mevin Hooten, and Simon Goring
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 3, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-3-1-2017, 2017
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We present a statistical framework for the reconstruction of historic temperature patterns from sparse, irregular data collected from observer stations. A common statistical technique for climate reconstruction uses modern era data as a set of temperature patterns that can be used to estimate the spatial temperature patterns. We present a framework for exploration of different assumptions about the sets of patterns used in the reconstruction while providing statistically rigorous estimates.
Georgina Davies and Noel Cressie
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 155–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-155-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-155-2016, 2016
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Sea surface temperature (SST) is a key component of global climate models, particularly in the tropical Pacific Ocean where El Niño and La Nina events have worldwide implications. In our paper, we analyse monthly SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region and find a transformation that removes a spatial mean-variance dependence for each month. For 10 out of 12 months in the year, the transformed monthly time series gave more accurate or as accurate forecasts than those from the untransformed time series.
Eric Gilleland, Melissa Bukovsky, Christopher L. Williams, Seth McGinnis, Caspar M. Ammann, Barbara G. Brown, and Linda O. Mearns
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 137–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-137-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-137-2016, 2016
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Several climate models are evaluated under current climate conditions to determine how well they are able to capture frequencies of severe-storm environments (conditions conducive for the formation of hail storms, tornadoes, etc.). They are found to underpredict the spatial extent of high-frequency areas (such as tornado alley), as well as underpredict the frequencies in the areas.
Whitney K. Huang, Michael L. Stein, David J. McInerney, Shanshan Sun, and Elisabeth J. Moyer
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 79–103, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-79-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-79-2016, 2016
Sergei N. Rodionov
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 63–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-63-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-63-2016, 2016
David Bolin, Arnoldo Frigessi, Peter Guttorp, Ola Haug, Elisabeth Orskaug, Ida Scheel, and Jonas Wallin
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-39-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-39-2016, 2016
Julie Bessac, Pierre Ailliot, Julien Cattiaux, and Valerie Monbet
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-1-2016, 2016
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Several multi-site stochastic generators of zonal and meridional components of wind are proposed in this paper. Various questions are explored, such as the modeling of the regime in a multi-site context, the extraction of relevant clusterings from extra variables or from the local wind data, and the link between weather types extracted from wind data and large-scale weather regimes. We also discuss the relative advantages of hidden and observed regime-switching models.
E. M. Schliep, A. E. Gelfand, and D. M. Holland
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 1, 59–74, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-59-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-59-2015, 2015
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There is considerable demand for accurate air quality information in human health analyses. The sparsity of ground monitoring stations across the US motivates the need for advanced statistical models to predict air quality metrics. We propose a statistical model that jointly models ground-monitoring station data and satellite-obtained data allowing for temporal and spatial misalignment, missingness, and spatially and temporally varying correlation to enhance prediction of particulate matter.
R. Philbin and M. Jun
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 1, 29–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-29-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-29-2015, 2015
T. K. Doan, J. Haslett, and A. C. Parnell
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 1, 15–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-15-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-15-2015, 2015
W. B. Leeds, E. J. Moyer, and M. L. Stein
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 1, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-1-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-1-1-2015, 2015
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Short summary
The intensities of recent heatwave events, such as the record-breaking heatwave in early June 2021 in the Pacific Northwest area, are substantially altered by climate change. We further quantify the contribution of the local weather situation and the land surface conditions with a statistical model suited for extreme data. Based on this method, we can answer
what ifquestions, such as estimating the change in the 2021 heatwave temperature if it happened in a world without climate change.
The intensities of recent heatwave events, such as the record-breaking heatwave in early June...
