Articles | Volume 9, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-83-2023
14 Jul 2023
 | 14 Jul 2023

Quantifying the statistical dependence of mid-latitude heatwave intensity and likelihood on prevalent physical drivers and climate change

Joel Zeder and Erich M. Fischer

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Cited articles

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Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and García-Herrera, R.: The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224, 2011. a
Bartusek, S., Kornhuber, K., and Ting, M.: 2021 North American heatwave amplified by climate change-driven nonlinear interactions, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 1143–1150, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01520-4, 2022. a, b
Beillouin, D., Schauberger, B., Bastos, A., Ciais, P., and Makowski, D.: Impact of extreme weather conditions on European crop production in 2018, Philos. T. R. Soc., 375, 20190510, https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0510, 2020. a
Bercos‐Hickey, E., O’Brien, T. A., Wehner, M. F., Zhang, L., Patricola, C. M., Huang, H., and Risser, M. D.: Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099396, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099396, 2022. a
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The intensities of recent heatwave events, such as the record-breaking heatwave in early June 2021 in the Pacific Northwest area, are substantially altered by climate change. We further quantify the contribution of the local weather situation and the land surface conditions with a statistical model suited for extreme data. Based on this method, we can answer what if questions, such as estimating the change in the 2021 heatwave temperature if it happened in a world without climate change.