Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
ASCMO
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-123-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-123-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
26 Aug 2025
 | 26 Aug 2025

Forecasting springtime rainfall in southeastern Australia using empirical orthogonal functions and neural networks

Stjepan Marčelja

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Latest update: 18 Oct 2026
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Short summary
Southeasterm Australia, including the Murray–Darling Basin, is a highly productive agricultural region largely dependent on adequate rainfall, providing irrigation water needed for crops.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology uses linear methods and provides seasonal forecasts expressed as the probability of exceeding median rainfall. I use expanded methods, including more ocean data and deep learning neural networks that provide nonlinear estimates of the rainfall as measured by rain gauges.

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