Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-159-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-11-159-2025
08 Sep 2025
 | 08 Sep 2025

Interpretable seasonal multisite hidden Markov model for stochastic rain generation in France

Emmanuel Gobet, David Métivier, and Sylvie Parey

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

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Short summary
Stochastic weather generators (SWGs) are statistical models used to study climate variability. We design an interpretable multisite SWG for precipitation, capable of learning large-scale weather regimes solely from French observational data. The model reproduces extreme events like droughts and heavy rain and is applied to climate models under historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This type of model aims to assess large-scale weather risks, such as those impacting energy systems and agriculture.
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