Articles | Volume 4, issue 1/2
14 Dec 2018
 | 14 Dec 2018

Hourly probabilistic snow forecasts over complex terrain: a hybrid ensemble postprocessing approach

Reto Stauffer, Georg J. Mayr, Jakob W. Messner, and Achim Zeileis

Related authors

Remember the past: a comparison of time-adaptive training schemes for non-homogeneous regression
Moritz N. Lang, Sebastian Lerch, Georg J. Mayr, Thorsten Simon, Reto Stauffer, and Achim Zeileis
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 27, 23–34,,, 2020
Short summary
Bivariate Gaussian models for wind vectors in a distributional regression framework
Moritz N. Lang, Georg J. Mayr, Reto Stauffer, and Achim Zeileis
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5, 115–132,,, 2019
Short summary
Skewed logistic distribution for statistical temperature post-processing in mountainous areas
Manuel Gebetsberger, Reto Stauffer, Georg J. Mayr, and Achim Zeileis
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 5, 87–100,,, 2019
Short summary

Related subject area

Atmospheric science
Forecasting 24 h averaged PM2.5 concentration in the Aburrá Valley using tree-based machine learning models, global forecasts, and satellite information
Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla, Paola A. Montoya, Juan Manuel Sánchez, K. Santiago Hernández, and Mauricio Ramírez
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 121–135,,, 2023
Short summary
A generalized Spatio-Temporal Threshold Clustering method for identification of extreme event patterns
Vitaly Kholodovsky and Xin-Zhong Liang
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 7, 35–52,,, 2021
Short summary
Nonlinear time series models for the North Atlantic Oscillation
Thomas Önskog, Christian L. E. Franzke, and Abdel Hannachi
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 141–157,,, 2020
Short summary
Comparing forecast systems with multiple correlation decomposition based on partial correlation
Rita Glowienka-Hense, Andreas Hense, Sebastian Brune, and Johanna Baehr
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 103–113,,, 2020
Short summary
Postprocessing ensemble forecasts of vertical temperature profiles
David Schoenach, Thorsten Simon, and Georg Johann Mayr
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 45–60,,, 2020
Short summary

Cited articles

Amt der Tiroler Landesregierung: Statistisches Jahrbuch Bundesland Tirol, (last access: 15 July 2016), 2014.
Bellaire, S., Jamieson, J. B., and Fierz, C.: Forcing the snow-cover model SNOWPACK with forecasted weather data, The Cryosphere, 5, 1115–1125,, 2011.
BMLFUW: Bundesministerium für Land und Forstwirtschaft, Umwelt und Wasserwirtschaft (BMLFUW), Abteilung IV/4 – Wasserhaushalt, available at:, last access: 14 November 2018.
Bouallègue, Z. B. and Theis, S. E.: Spatial Techniques Applied to Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: from Verification Results to Probabilistic Products, Meteorol. Appl., 21, 922–929,, 2014.
Bröcker, J. and Smith, L. A.: Increasing the Reliability of Reliability Diagrams, Weather Forecast., 22, 651–661,, 2007.
Short summary
Snowfall forecasts are important for a range of economic sectors as well as for the safety of people and infrastructure, especially in mountainous regions. This work presents a novel statistical approach to provide accurate forecasts for fresh snow amounts and the probability of snowfall combining data from various sources. The results demonstrate that the new approach is able to provide reliable high-resolution hourly snowfall forecasts for the eastern European Alps up to 3 days ahead.