Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
ASCMO
Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-205-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
18 Nov 2020
 | 18 Nov 2020

Nonstationary extreme value analysis for event attribution combining climate models and observations

Yoann Robin and Aurélien Ribes

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Short summary
We have developed a new statistical method to describe how a severe weather event, such as a heat wave, may have been influenced by climate change. Our method incorporates both observations and data from various climate models to reflect climate model uncertainty. Our results show that both the probability and the intensity of the French July 2019 heatwave have increased significantly in response to human influence. We find that this heat wave might not have been possible without climate change.
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