A multi-method framework for global real-time climate attribution

Gilford, Daniel M.; Pershing, Andrew; Strauss, Benjamin H.; Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike E. L.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-135-2022

Articles | Volume 8, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-135-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-135-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 8, issue 1

13 Jun 2022

| 13 Jun 2022

A multi-method framework for global real-time climate attribution

Daniel M. Gilford, Andrew Pershing, Benjamin H. Strauss, Karsten Haustein, and Friederike E. L. Otto

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-135-2022-supplement

Model code and software

ISIMIP2b Bias-Correction Code S. Lange https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1069050

climatecentral/gilford22_attframework: Release supporting the publication of “A multi-method framework for global real-time climate attribution” D. Gilford https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6624712

Short summary

We developed a framework to produce global real-time estimates of how human-caused climate change affects the likelihood of daily weather events. A multi-method approach provides ensemble attribution estimates accompanied by confidence intervals, creating new opportunities for climate change communication. Methodological efficiency permits daily analysis using forecasts or observations. Applications with daily maximum temperature highlight the framework's capacity on daily and global scales.