Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
ASCMO
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-1-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-1-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
05 Jan 2026
 | 05 Jan 2026

Bayesian hierarchical modelling of intensity-duration-frequency curves using a climate model large ensemble

Alexander Lee Rischmuller, Benjamin Poschlod, and Jana Sillmann

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Latest update: 17 Oct 2026
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Short summary
Extreme precipitation probability estimation is vital for hazard protection design but has high uncertainty. We tested six statistical models using 2000 years of climate data. Our Bayesian hierarchical duration-dependent Generalized Extreme Value model shows the highest accuracy and robustness for sample sizes between 30 and 100 years, making it highly promising for use with limited observational records.
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