Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-73-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-12-73-2026
23 Mar 2026
 | 23 Mar 2026

Comparing climate time series – Part 6: Testing equality of autoregressive parameters without assuming equality of noise variances

Timothy DelSole and Michael K. Tippett

Data sets

Software and Data for "Testing Equality of Autoregressive Parameters Without Assuming Equality of Noise Variances" Timothy DelSole https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17177074

ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7

IPCC Working Group 1 (WG1) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Annex III Extended Data (v1.0) C. Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5705391

Model code and software

Software and Data for ``{T}esting Equality of Autoregressive Parameters Without Assuming Equality of Noise Variances' Timothy DelSole https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17177074

SantanderMetGroup/ATLAS: Final version of "IPCC WGI reference regions v4" (v1.6) M. Iturbide et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3998463

Short summary
We derived a new statistical test that can compare climate models and observations more broadly than before, while allowing for both natural fluctuations and human influences. Tests on global temperature data show that most climate models differ from observations in important ways.
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