Articles | Volume 2, issue 2
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 155–169, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-155-2016

Special issue: Hierarchical and exploratory statistical methods for ocean...

Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 155–169, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-155-2016
 
14 Nov 2016
14 Nov 2016

Analysis of variability of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures

Georgina Davies and Noel Cressie

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Sea surface temperature (SST) is a key component of global climate models, particularly in the tropical Pacific Ocean where El Niño and La Nina events have worldwide implications. In our paper, we analyse monthly SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region and find a transformation that removes a spatial mean-variance dependence for each month. For 10 out of 12 months in the year, the transformed monthly time series gave more accurate or as accurate forecasts than those from the untransformed time series.