Articles | Volume 2, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-17-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-17-2016
18 Apr 2016
 | 18 Apr 2016

Building a traceable climate model hierarchy with multi-level emulators

Giang T. Tran, Kevin I. C. Oliver, András Sóbester, David J. J. Toal, Philip B. Holden, Robert Marsh, Peter Challenor, and Neil R. Edwards

Related authors

Surface buoyancy control of millennial-scale variations of the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Neil R. Edwards, and Stefan Rahmstorf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-819, 2024
Short summary
Can machine learning algorithms improve upon classical palaeoenvironmental reconstruction models?
Peng Sun, Philip B. Holden, and H. John B. Birks
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-69,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-69, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for CP
Short summary
A missing link in the carbon cycle: phytoplankton light absorption under RCP scenarios
Rémy Asselot, Frank Lunkeit, Philip Holden, and Inga Hense
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-921,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-921, 2023
Short summary
Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations
Negar Vakilifard, Richard G. Williams, Philip B. Holden, Katherine Turner, Neil R. Edwards, and David J. Beerling
Biogeosciences, 19, 4249–4265, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022, 2022
Short summary
The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
Matteo Willeit, Andrey Ganopolski, Alexander Robinson, and Neil R. Edwards
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5905–5948, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5905-2022, 2022
Short summary

Related subject area

Climate research
Spatial patterns and indices for heat waves and droughts over Europe using a decomposition of extremal dependency
Svenja Szemkus and Petra Friederichs
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 29–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-29-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Changes in the distribution of annual maximum temperatures in Europe
Graeme Auld, Gabriele C. Hegerl, and Ioannis Papastathopoulos
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 45–66, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-45-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-45-2023, 2023
Short summary
Evaluating skills and issues of quantile-based bias adjustment for climate change scenarios
Fabian Lehner, Imran Nadeem, and Herbert Formayer
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 9, 29–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-29-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-9-29-2023, 2023
Short summary
Comparing climate time series – Part 4: Annual cycles
Timothy DelSole and Michael K. Tippett
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 187–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-187-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-187-2022, 2022
Short summary
Statistical reconstruction of European winter snowfall in reanalysis and climate models based on air temperature and total precipitation
Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons and Davide Faranda
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 8, 155–186, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-8-155-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Castruccio, S., McInerney, D. J., Stein, M. L., Crouch, F. L., Jacob, R. L., and Moyer, E. J.: Statistical emulation of climate model projections based on precomputed GCM runs, J. Climate, 27, 1829–1844, 2014.
Challenor, P. G., McNeall, D., and Gattiker, J.: Assessing the probability of rare climate events, in: The Oxford handbook of applied bayesian analysis, edited by O'Hagan, A. and West, M., chap. 16, 403–430, Oxford University Press, New York, 2010.
Conti, S. and O'Hagan, A.: Bayesian emulation of complex multi-output and dynamic computer models, J. Stat. Plan. Infer., 140, 640–651, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2009.08.006, 2010.
Cook, R. D. and Nachtsheim, C. J.: A comparison of algorithms for constructing exact D-optimal designs, Technometrics, 22, 315–324, 1980.
Cumming, J. and Goldstein, M.: Small Sample Designs for Complex High-Dimensional Models Based on Fast Approximations, Technometrics, 51, 377–388, 2008.
Download
Short summary
In this work, we combine the information from a complex and a simple atmospheric model to efficiently build a statistical representation (an emulator) of the complex model and to study the relationship between them. Thanks to the improved efficiency, this process is now feasible for complex models, which are slow and costly to run. The constructed emulator provide approximations of the model output, allowing various analyses to be made without the need to run the complex model again.