Articles | Volume 8, issue 1
02 Jun 2022
 | 02 Jun 2022

Analysis of the evolution of parametric drivers of high-end sea-level hazards

Alana Hough and Tony E. Wong

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Cited articles

Bakker, A. M., Applegate, P. J., and Keller, K.: A simple, physically motivated model of sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes, Environ. Modell. Softw., 83, 27–35,, 2016. a
Bakker, A. M. R., Wong, T. E., Ruckert, K. L., and Keller, K.: Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 3880,, 2017. a, b
Bakker, P., Schmittner, A., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bi, D., van den Broeke, M. R., Chan, W.-L., Hu, A., Beadling, R. L., Marsland, S. J., Mernild, S. H., Saenko, O. A., Swingedouw, D., Sullivan, A., and Yin, J.: Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 12252–12260,, 2016. a
Church, J., Clark, P., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M., Milne, G., Nerem, R., Nunn, P., Payne, A., Pfeffer, W., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A.: Sea Level Change, Sect. 13, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1137–1216,, 2013. a
Dayan, H., Le Cozannet, G., Speich, S., and Thiéblemont, R.: High-End Scenarios of Sea-Level Rise for Coastal Risk-Averse Stakeholders, Frontiers in Marine Science, 8, 514,, 2021. a, b
Short summary
We use machine learning to assess how different geophysical uncertainties relate to the severity of future sea-level rise. We show how the contributions to coastal hazard from different sea-level processes evolve over time and find that near-term sea-level hazards are driven by thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers and ice caps, while long-term hazards are driven by ice loss from the major ice sheets.